At-risk member

An at-risk member is someone whose behaviour suggests they’re likely to cancel — usually a drop in visit frequency, a break in a long-standing pattern, or disengagement across several signals at once. The point of identifying them is that it happens while they’re still a member.

Risk comes from behaviour rather than opinion. The signals that carry weight:

• Falling visit frequency — the strongest single indicator
• A broken pattern — the Tuesday-and-Thursday member who stops
• Time since last visit
• Disengagement elsewhere — app, classes, messages

One quiet week is a holiday. Three is a decision forming.

The skill is knowing which is which, per member, rather than applying one threshold to everyone.

The distinction is whether you can still do anything.

• At-risk — still a member, still paying, gone quiet. Reachable.
• Lapsed — already cancelled, or stopped paying. Winning them back is a different, much harder job.

Most gym software reports the second. The value is entirely in the first.

By the time someone cancels, they left weeks earlier. The cancellation is administration — the decision happened during a quiet fortnight nobody noticed.

A member who gets a genuine, human message during that fortnight often comes back. The same member contacted after cancelling usually doesn’t, because now they have to reverse a decision instead of just turning up.

Every member carries a continuously updated risk read, with counts by tier and a per-member timeline and attendance heatmap. Members needing attention surface on your dashboard with the reason and one-click outreach — and PATO drafts the message.

It also flags the opposite: members doing well, worth acknowledging.